Markets have rebounded sharply after last week's fear-driven decline. Despite this, rate cuts are still anticipated in the upcoming FOMC meetings. Changes in monetary policy often benefit some sectors over others, providing investors a chance to adjust their portfolio allocations accordingly. This paper delves into a comparative analysis of sectors around monetary policy pivots to highlight how a spread between S&P Financials Select Sector and S&P Utilities Select Sector stands to benefit in the coming months. It also describes a hypothetical trade setup using CME E-Mini S&P Select Sector futures which can be used to express the view in a margin-efficient manner. RATE CUTS WILL HURT FINANCIAL FIRMS Financial firms benefit significantly from higher rates, as these drive net interest margin (NIM) expansion, boosting their bottom line. However, when rates start to decrease, this positive impact reverses. The Financials Select Sector ETF (XLF) is comprised of 25% banks, 31% financial services firms, and 16.6% insurance firms. All these firms have benefited from higher rates, albeit the strongest impact may be limited to banks and insurance firms whose overall bottom line is significantly impacted by expanding NIM. In the last three monetary policy pivots, XLF has declined by an average of 5.6% over the following six months. Conversely, at the start of rate hikes, the ETF has typically risen by an average of 3.7% in the subsequent six months. While the most recent pivot in 2019 saw an increase in XLF, the overall average trend suggests a decline. The trend is visible even when examining the relative performance of XLF and SPX. Following rate cuts, the spread declined by an average of 2.8% while during rate increases, it declined by just 1.1%. There is another headwind facing the XLF ETF, particularly banks – rising credit delinquencies. Credit card delinquencies are especially concerning as they stood at the highest level in 13 years as of Q1 2024. Overall delinquencies are also rising and near the highest level since 2021. Updated data from the New York Fed has shown that conditions remained stressed in Q2 with total delinquencies at 3.2%. Particularly concerning were severe (>90 days delinquent) credit card delinquencies at a staggering 10.93%. Consumers are increasingly relying on unsustainable credit card debt to cover expenses. As delinquencies remain elevated, issuing banks must increase loan loss provisions which impacts earnings directly. Source: New York Fed As credit card usage becomes unsustainable, another class of companies in XLF – payment processors - will also be hurt. The largest payment processors (Visa, Mastercard, and Amex) represent nearly 15% of the XLF index. RATE CUTS WILL BENEFIT UTILITY FIRMS Unlike financial firms, utility companies have struggled in a high-rate environment. As their huge capital expenditure